Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 194.640887 235.570066 286.016986 353.847039 444.368678 5.635675e+02 7.369017e+02
2025-06-08 141.133047 185.622611 247.138528 341.675574 489.710244 7.250964e+02 1.157542e+03
2025-06-15 122.255127 171.600837 246.441211 375.303723 608.657200 1.055552e+03 2.117468e+03
2025-06-22 103.996877 152.665615 231.447315 378.943126 678.042253 1.347440e+03 3.370567e+03
2025-06-29 92.391337 140.909567 224.010639 391.746789 770.130991 1.760748e+03 5.684652e+03
2025-07-06 81.357411 127.673837 210.474043 387.715187 823.757347 2.131376e+03 8.868594e+03
2025-07-13 77.220638 125.363761 215.988074 424.647710 998.960223 3.077980e+03 1.941070e+04
2025-07-20 73.090956 122.209668 218.975441 457.043990 1186.234095 4.392360e+03 4.730847e+04
2025-07-27 68.785006 117.930890 218.622849 481.330863 1369.651870 6.117768e+03 1.326256e+05
2025-08-03 64.401440 112.775463 215.257134 496.706959 1537.963344 8.286177e+03 4.668128e+05
2025-08-10 59.881421 106.674914 208.561247 500.635606 1668.746831 1.073665e+04 2.362998e+06
2025-08-17 55.128049 99.468850 198.018029 489.911567 1730.914103 1.294489e+04 2.180857e+07
2025-08-24 50.482604 92.141542 186.471566 474.395038 1771.197507 1.542167e+04 1.218974e+11
2025-08-31 46.365791 85.491788 175.563950 458.020747 1799.533900 1.819768e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 45.720718 86.303152 183.397120 508.056331 2265.886943 3.477106e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 43.223108 82.659713 179.075105 513.562435 2472.711346 5.071242e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 41.467107 80.494307 178.318682 532.686579 2816.710085 8.665735e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 39.025397 76.461366 171.774450 526.668089 2962.616716 1.238038e+05 NaN
2025-10-05 38.666696 77.303719 179.101118 582.150962 3786.363016 3.853273e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 38.014102 77.352198 184.179724 631.354910 4726.192689 1.678023e+06 NaN
2025-10-19 37.032294 76.466981 186.306810 668.558755 5688.510338 1.376864e+07 NaN
2025-10-26 35.791248 74.787137 185.676547 692.249179 6590.805485 1.203334e+09 NaN
2025-11-02 34.285013 72.271298 181.965370 698.318888 7265.075243 NaN NaN